Archive for February 9th, 2016
Orange County Real Estate Forecast for 2016
Had a great afternoon today listening to expert Gary Watt’s predictions for OC’s real estate market this year. Last year, we had a modest appreciation of 4.8%. Real people scenario: If you own a 500K condo, it’s now worth 524K 🙂 What’s in store for this year?
OC Inventory Predictions
Inventory should stay around 6500 homes, and appreciation is expected to be 2-3%. If our inventory goes up to 7500 homes, then we’ll have flat appreciation. If everyone freaks out because the election candidates suck and list their home, then a negative 2% is expected (if inventory rises over 7500).
New home sales should continue to decline (they were down last year), and high end and single family homes should decline. Not in overall price, just in volume, mostly due to affordability.
Rates aren’t expected to go much above 4%. Historically, the Feds have always lowered interest rates in an election year, and this year it’s different…so we have to see if that affects our market.
Buyer Trends in Orange County
First time buyers are 28% of our market, the main reason it’s lower than the rest of the country is affordability. Qualifying for homes is stricter, which is also a factor. And let’s not forget about student debt.
As a nation, the average is 63.7% for homeownership. Only 49.1% of Orange County residents are homeowners; our county is one of the hardest to buy in.
What about the younger buyers? 20% of Millennials are currently homeowners, but we’re seeing a commitment issue with about 10%, who don’t even have ‘buying a home’ on their radar.
Chinese & foreign buyers are still a force to be reckoned with. They like to spend their cash here.
OC Rental Activity
Our rental market is on fire, and will continue to be. The rental gap is about $1000/mo. Many residents are taking a short term mindset of saving the extra monthly spend instead of a long term equity building mindset. There are also many who are still rebuilding credit from foreclosure or short sale, who will remain renting until affordability and credit scores increase.
Overall, we should have another good year in 2016, as long as we don’t get an El Nino of inventory! If you are considering listing your home, the sooner the better, because our busy season starts to slow after May. Call or text Angie at 949-338-7408 to have our team crunch numbers and get a spreadsheet of your potential profit!
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