The 2023 CA Housing Market Forecast: What You Need to Know
The California housing market is always changing, and it’s important to stay ahead of the trends if you want to be successful on your real estate journey. That’s why we were so excited to have Jordan Levine, Chief Economist at C.A.R., give a can’t-miss forecast of the housing market for 2023 at the ReImagine conference last week.
This valuable data will provide insight into today’s pressing housing issues that may impact your equity and your largest investment in the future. It’s essential information for anyone who wants to stay ahead of the curve in California real estate!
Forecast: Chance of Rain in seller’s paradise
Our economy is getting hit with a lot right now, so it’s important to keep an eye out for the clouds! We just finished years of sunny skies in terms of equity and appreciation, but the buyers running after starved inventory have been a bit burnt out.. and now loan rates have hit them with a huge gust of wind on top of it.
Low low interest rates the last 10 years had allowed buyers to continually increase purchase prices, and still have an affordable payment. It looks like that trend is now dissolving, which brings cloudy skies to our CA real estate market.
If you’re looking at the big picture, our 2022 Jan-June market was white hot, and 2021 had the highest volume of California home sales in an entire decade, over 450,000 homes were sold. 3 out of 4 homes sold over the asking price in 2021. The average days on the market was 7, when it’s historically 30-90 days. This type of supply & demand is not healthy, and it had to ‘simmer down’ eventually. Welp… here we are. We are catching our breath; including agents and lenders who have been pelted the last 2 years.
What Does This Mean for CA Buyers and Sellers?
If sellers are confused why buyers are now offering less than the asking price, the interest rate boost adds an additional $1600-1700 per month for the EXACT SAME HOME.
If buyers can’t qualify for the same amount as they could previously, that will affect our property prices. We are now at less than 20% of individuals in California who can afford a home. It’s not as bad as we have been, but it would still be nice if more people had homeownership as an option.
Warning: Rate pressure is building. Mortgage Rates might get worse.
Because rates may go even higher, its critical to price your homes right and maintain realistic expectations. Because every local market is different, what you see on national news is not necessary YOUR reality. And what you see in the newspapers… remember gloom & doom headlines sell, and the news needs subscriptions. Don’t get caught thinking Southern California prices are on a cliff, when we are just panting on the side of the road from exhaustion. Properly priced homes will always sell.
Fact: The sky is not falling
It’s not projected we are heading into a foreclosure market. Homeowners still have over 122K average in wealth, and renters are no better than they were 40 years ago, with a 6K average net worth. The total net worth of consumers is down right now, so we should expect some pushback. Now is NOT the market for Brother in law effect…’my BIL said xyz’. Now is the market to look to the true professionals and experts to guide you. The news outlets are also not experts. Active real estate agents and mortgage lenders are.
Forecast: What does the future for Orange County real estate look like?
Historically, our new rates are still low, and we should be looking at them as the new normal. According to multiple experts, we shouldn’t expect rates to go back down again in the near future. It’s still a great time to buy a home if you’re renting, and the renters were some of the most ignored in our previous market, so you will see them come back into the fray. Buyers who were at the cusp of affordability may unfortunately be priced out of the market, or they will be offering lower than asking price because they are literally chasing the property that was affordable with 6 month ago rates.
Sellers who listed 30-100K over the previous summer comps will likely have to reduce price or face their listing expiring. It’s a good idea to research sales in the community (comps) the last 90 days, and see what the median comp range is. Listing at the top of your comp range with the current market temperature could cause the home to sit frozen on the market. Not to worry though, properly priced homes in Southern California will always sell. Make sure you work with a seasoned professional and list at the right price from day 1, or you could suffer. Discount and ibuying brokerages don’t do well in this type of market – beware!
Many investors, seeing the writing on the wall with interest rates, are putting 1031 exchanges in motion, and adjusting portfolios accordingly. Some are tiring of strict Los Angeles rent control and housing regulations, and are opting to relocate investments to neighboring counties or even other states that don’t impress as many regulations or red tape.
If you’re curious about the range of your home’s worth, including short term and long term rental rate averages, click here: https://hmbt.co/TTNcDG – If you would like to receive monthly Orange County and Los Angeles real estate reports simply sign in to the link above for a free account – it’s that easy! Angie is only a call or text away if you would like a full broker price opinion on your home or investment property 949-338-7408.
Sell Your OC home – QUICK – Orange County Real Estate tips!
Orange County Home Staging & Photography tips from the professionals
Considering selling your Orange County, CA home soon? You aren’t the only one! Keep reading for some tips on how you can sell fast and for the most amount of money, before your neighbor does!
I know, I know, who wants to put more money into a house before they sell it?? Nobody. BUT……who wants to have a house on the market for 6-12 months? Also nobody. Having your home on the market basically means you are living in a museum. No dishes in the sink, no clutter on the counter, no clothes on the floor, bed made every day, leave every time a buyer wants to see it – so much work! Selling in the first 30-60 days usually nets the highest price, and it helps keep you sane.
A good Realtor is always learning ways to make life easier for both buyers & sellers, so I’m happy to bring today’s Orange County Association of Realtor’s class highlights to you on the blog! A professional photographer and interior designer sure know about the psychology of staging a listing. Aubrey Antis, with Aubrey Antis Photography (yes, we use her all the time:) and Kathleen Garito, an experienced interior designer had tons of great tips to share about how to sell quick. First, some facts.
OC Home Selling & Staging Facts
- 92% of home buyers cannot look past the clutter of a non-staged home.
- 38% of buyers are willing to increase an offer when they see a staged home!
- Buyers are 7X more likely to visit a home that was photographed and staged professionally.
- Most aggressive buyers are 14-21 days into the listing – don’t wait until day 60 to begin staging.
- Check with your CPA – it’s probably a write off!
- Less than 10% of homes on the MLS are using professional photos and staging. Immediately stand out by incorporating these services.
- More photos online = less days on the market. 1 photo means at least 70 days. 20+ photos take it down to 32.
Top rooms to stage in your home:
- living room
- kitchen
- master bedroom
- dining room
- baths / beds
Photography tips and tricks to sell your property quick
- Photoshop in a pretty sky if you had a gray day
- Vertical photos don’t fit well in the MLS or do the room justice.
- Open up patio doors to make the outside more inviting
- Take down the family photos
- Wet the driveway
- Vertical photos don’t fit well in the MLS or do the room justice.
- Pets are a no in the picture – if buyers are allergic they won’t even come see your property!
Interior Design tips and tricks to get the best price for your property
- Light is the #1 thing that sells a property. Open up the shades, add some canned lights, get some lamps – but let that light inside!
- Printed rugs bring the eye down, remove them or put them in storage so buyers focus on the home features
- Wallpaper = must.go.now
- Watch for huge sofa’s – they are best in storage if they are closing off the room
- Printed drapes keep the eye inside the room – do you have a view? Take them down or go neutral.
- Do you have ugly neighbors? Put printed drapes up to stop the eye!
- NO THEMES. No medieval times, Disney, movie, music…..remember….your hobbies are not your buyer’s hobbies.
If you’d like to sell with less stress then let a good team get to work for you – both Aubrey & Kathleen are included in many or our listings – call to learn more details! 949-338-7408. OR – they will both be at Homeownership Day at Chapman University on March 28th! Check out OChomefair.com for more info and to register for the free class 🙂
Read Full Post | Make a Comment ( None so far )What’s in store for Orange County Real Estate in 2014?
What’s in store for 2-0-1-4?
Today we had the pleasure of attending a lunch & learn by The Real Estate Focus Group and Steven Thomas, one of Orange County’s best real estate forecasters. Steven’s reports have been published in Forbes, USA today, NY Times, and especially the OC Register because he’s constantly pulling tons of valuable data about what’s going on with the OC housing market.
2013 Real Estate Review
In 2013, short sale volume dropped by 61%, (holla:) we experienced a hot hot hot market with 18% appreciation and then the unrealistic sellers entered the market after June. We saw many more move up sellers, which is a great sign. There was a significant lack of inventory at the beginning of the year, followed by a spike and overpriced inventory in the fall. We also had a refinance bonanza, so hopefully you took advantage of that! Interest rates are still historically low, but tapering is looming, so 2014 is a year to get your financing while financing is still good.
2014 Real Estate Ramp Up
We currently have 5000 homes on the Orange County market, and we have a 49% increase in inventory since this time last year. Our market is healthy because interest rates are still low (but expected to go up), and we are currently at 90% equity (standard) sales.
Only 5% of the mortgaged homes in Orange County are currently underwater. That means 95% of you are back to even or have (gasp!) equity – FABULOUS NEWS – and this makes the perfect formula for a continued move up market. If you’d like to get the house with the yard or the pool, this year is opportunity time for you.
First time buyers who have been squeezed out of the market the last 12 months will come back, even though their rates are a little higher and FHA guidelines have changed. In addition, more luxury buyers are expected to enter the market this year.
Sellers, our expected time for a properly priced home on the market in Orange County is 93 days. Our median sales price is 610K, and buyers, your monthly payment for a 4.5% loan at this price is approximately $2500. Still affordable. Unless you like paying off your landlord’s mortgage instead.
New home construction is going up: Rancho Mission Viejo, Great Park Irvine, and Baker’s Ranch in Foothill Ranch are all big developments underway. Remember it’s still a good idea to have a Realtor represent you even in a new build situation, so be sure to call us if you would like to check out any of the inventory out there.
Some concerns for 2014….. uncertainty, lack of fair market value homes, interest rates, and the circus in Washington DC.
Some expectations for 2014…… buyers will insist on fair market value vs. paying over appraisal, active inventory will continue to rise, interest rates will continue to rise, and we should have a mild appreciation of 0-5%.
If you are interested in MORE geeky data, we have it at our fingertips! Just email angie@askangie.com, tweet @angieweeks or @weeksteam, or call 877-230-3211 to request a copy of this month’s Orange County housing report.
Read Full Post | Make a Comment ( None so far )Orange County Home Staging – need a FAST sale?
Many of you have heard of Home Staging and thought “OK, maybe, but does it really work? Is it really worth the money?”
Last night I got a call from a home-owner I worked with at the end of March to pick up some props. When I staged their house I left some items behind and told them to give me a call when the house sells so that I can pick them up. In today’s market houses usually sit for a few months before an offer is made so you can imagine my surprise when I got the call. What happened? Why did they ask me to come pick up the props? Surely the house could not have sold so fast.
Orange County home sells 4 Days after staging – accepted offer was above asking price!!!
Let’s look at how much this staging saved them. For each month that a house is on the market a seller has to pay mortgage, utilities, insurance, taxes and any other owner related bills. Assuming the average mortgage is around $2,000 that is a lot of money spent each month the house is on the market. Knowing that, how much would you be willing to pay for a service that can help sell your house faster? Would it be worth $1000 to save months of those expenses? My services for this house cost these owners well under $1,000 and we used only what was already there. The owners were still living in the house and had everything we needed on hand.
If you are considering selling your house make the investment in Staging. It will save you so much money in the long run, and get your house sold much faster.
For more information check out our website dedicated to Orange County Staging!
Read Full Post | Make a Comment ( None so far )
Orange County Real Estate Success 