Balanced Market
The 2023 CA Housing Market Forecast: What You Need to Know
The California housing market is always changing, and it’s important to stay ahead of the trends if you want to be successful on your real estate journey. That’s why we were so excited to have Jordan Levine, Chief Economist at C.A.R., give a can’t-miss forecast of the housing market for 2023 at the ReImagine conference last week.
This valuable data will provide insight into today’s pressing housing issues that may impact your equity and your largest investment in the future. It’s essential information for anyone who wants to stay ahead of the curve in California real estate!
Forecast: Chance of Rain in seller’s paradise
Our economy is getting hit with a lot right now, so it’s important to keep an eye out for the clouds! We just finished years of sunny skies in terms of equity and appreciation, but the buyers running after starved inventory have been a bit burnt out.. and now loan rates have hit them with a huge gust of wind on top of it.
Low low interest rates the last 10 years had allowed buyers to continually increase purchase prices, and still have an affordable payment. It looks like that trend is now dissolving, which brings cloudy skies to our CA real estate market.
If you’re looking at the big picture, our 2022 Jan-June market was white hot, and 2021 had the highest volume of California home sales in an entire decade, over 450,000 homes were sold. 3 out of 4 homes sold over the asking price in 2021. The average days on the market was 7, when it’s historically 30-90 days. This type of supply & demand is not healthy, and it had to ‘simmer down’ eventually. Welp… here we are. We are catching our breath; including agents and lenders who have been pelted the last 2 years.
What Does This Mean for CA Buyers and Sellers?
If sellers are confused why buyers are now offering less than the asking price, the interest rate boost adds an additional $1600-1700 per month for the EXACT SAME HOME.
If buyers can’t qualify for the same amount as they could previously, that will affect our property prices. We are now at less than 20% of individuals in California who can afford a home. It’s not as bad as we have been, but it would still be nice if more people had homeownership as an option.
Warning: Rate pressure is building. Mortgage Rates might get worse.
Because rates may go even higher, its critical to price your homes right and maintain realistic expectations. Because every local market is different, what you see on national news is not necessary YOUR reality. And what you see in the newspapers… remember gloom & doom headlines sell, and the news needs subscriptions. Don’t get caught thinking Southern California prices are on a cliff, when we are just panting on the side of the road from exhaustion. Properly priced homes will always sell.
Fact: The sky is not falling
It’s not projected we are heading into a foreclosure market. Homeowners still have over 122K average in wealth, and renters are no better than they were 40 years ago, with a 6K average net worth. The total net worth of consumers is down right now, so we should expect some pushback. Now is NOT the market for Brother in law effect…’my BIL said xyz’. Now is the market to look to the true professionals and experts to guide you. The news outlets are also not experts. Active real estate agents and mortgage lenders are.
Forecast: What does the future for Orange County real estate look like?
Historically, our new rates are still low, and we should be looking at them as the new normal. According to multiple experts, we shouldn’t expect rates to go back down again in the near future. It’s still a great time to buy a home if you’re renting, and the renters were some of the most ignored in our previous market, so you will see them come back into the fray. Buyers who were at the cusp of affordability may unfortunately be priced out of the market, or they will be offering lower than asking price because they are literally chasing the property that was affordable with 6 month ago rates.
Sellers who listed 30-100K over the previous summer comps will likely have to reduce price or face their listing expiring. It’s a good idea to research sales in the community (comps) the last 90 days, and see what the median comp range is. Listing at the top of your comp range with the current market temperature could cause the home to sit frozen on the market. Not to worry though, properly priced homes in Southern California will always sell. Make sure you work with a seasoned professional and list at the right price from day 1, or you could suffer. Discount and ibuying brokerages don’t do well in this type of market – beware!
Many investors, seeing the writing on the wall with interest rates, are putting 1031 exchanges in motion, and adjusting portfolios accordingly. Some are tiring of strict Los Angeles rent control and housing regulations, and are opting to relocate investments to neighboring counties or even other states that don’t impress as many regulations or red tape.
If you’re curious about the range of your home’s worth, including short term and long term rental rate averages, click here: https://hmbt.co/TTNcDG – If you would like to receive monthly Orange County and Los Angeles real estate reports simply sign in to the link above for a free account – it’s that easy! Angie is only a call or text away if you would like a full broker price opinion on your home or investment property 949-338-7408.
Tis’ the Season – it’s now an even Market in Orange County
Finally a NORMAL market in OC
If you are have been considering buying, but were reluctant due to the market – the times have changed! For the first time in 7+ years, our market in Orange County is even. This makes it a great time to consider buying, especially because we never know how long it will last. For quite a while it has been a sellers market due to low inventory of houses. This left buyers frustrated due to not being able to find the home they had been dreaming of. Many people were putting multiple offers in on whatever homes were available even if it wasn’t their dream place, just to be turned down because of all the competition in the market. This Spring it quickly started to become a more balanced market where both sellers and buyers had the opportunity to be successful. The active inventory has more than double this year, which is the fastest the market has changed since 2008. This does not necessarily mean it is favoring buyers more than sellers now, but is much more favorable towards buyers than it had previously been which is a huge plus for Orange County and clients who have been wanting to buy for awhile.
Until this Spring, houses were flying off the market at higher than normal prices due to demand, now this is what is sitting on the market due to the change in demand.
Luxury homes are still in demand
Even though it is a much more balanced market at the moment, luxury homes are still being sought out for and there isn’t enough inventory for those luxury buyers. Anything over $1.25 million is needed in the market. Every year luxury demand goes down a little more. So all our luxury owners who are reading this – its your time to make the most money for your home, and possibly upgrade to something even more luxurious 😉
Importance of listening to your Realtor
You all know that we are always advising to find a good real estate agent and sticking with them and their advice, this has not changed. We think it is so important for both buyers and sellers to be properly represented in order to give them the most smooth home purchasing or selling experience. In a balanced market it is almost more important to really listen to your Realtor. We have become so accustomed to the market we have been stuck in that people have a hard to adjusting back to a normal market. In a more balanced market there is no room for error, which is when a Realtor really comes in handy. In a sellers market it is easier to stretch the price because buyers are desperate, but in an even market overpricing leads to failure. It is important to have a Realtor help you decide on upgrades and pricing. Careful and well thought pricing is crucial for the remainder of the year now that it is no longer a sellers market.
If you would like to subscribe to regular market reports, email us at successinweeks@gmail.com. If you are interested in selling or buying a home in the new balanced market, contact Angie at 949-338-7408 so she can help you with all your real estate needs.
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Orange County Real Estate Success 