Los Angeles Real Estate
The 2023 CA Housing Market Forecast: What You Need to Know
The California housing market is always changing, and it’s important to stay ahead of the trends if you want to be successful on your real estate journey. That’s why we were so excited to have Jordan Levine, Chief Economist at C.A.R., give a can’t-miss forecast of the housing market for 2023 at the ReImagine conference last week.
This valuable data will provide insight into today’s pressing housing issues that may impact your equity and your largest investment in the future. It’s essential information for anyone who wants to stay ahead of the curve in California real estate!
Forecast: Chance of Rain in seller’s paradise
Our economy is getting hit with a lot right now, so it’s important to keep an eye out for the clouds! We just finished years of sunny skies in terms of equity and appreciation, but the buyers running after starved inventory have been a bit burnt out.. and now loan rates have hit them with a huge gust of wind on top of it.
Low low interest rates the last 10 years had allowed buyers to continually increase purchase prices, and still have an affordable payment. It looks like that trend is now dissolving, which brings cloudy skies to our CA real estate market.
If you’re looking at the big picture, our 2022 Jan-June market was white hot, and 2021 had the highest volume of California home sales in an entire decade, over 450,000 homes were sold. 3 out of 4 homes sold over the asking price in 2021. The average days on the market was 7, when it’s historically 30-90 days. This type of supply & demand is not healthy, and it had to ‘simmer down’ eventually. Welp… here we are. We are catching our breath; including agents and lenders who have been pelted the last 2 years.
What Does This Mean for CA Buyers and Sellers?
If sellers are confused why buyers are now offering less than the asking price, the interest rate boost adds an additional $1600-1700 per month for the EXACT SAME HOME.
If buyers can’t qualify for the same amount as they could previously, that will affect our property prices. We are now at less than 20% of individuals in California who can afford a home. It’s not as bad as we have been, but it would still be nice if more people had homeownership as an option.
Warning: Rate pressure is building. Mortgage Rates might get worse.
Because rates may go even higher, its critical to price your homes right and maintain realistic expectations. Because every local market is different, what you see on national news is not necessary YOUR reality. And what you see in the newspapers… remember gloom & doom headlines sell, and the news needs subscriptions. Don’t get caught thinking Southern California prices are on a cliff, when we are just panting on the side of the road from exhaustion. Properly priced homes will always sell.
Fact: The sky is not falling
It’s not projected we are heading into a foreclosure market. Homeowners still have over 122K average in wealth, and renters are no better than they were 40 years ago, with a 6K average net worth. The total net worth of consumers is down right now, so we should expect some pushback. Now is NOT the market for Brother in law effect…’my BIL said xyz’. Now is the market to look to the true professionals and experts to guide you. The news outlets are also not experts. Active real estate agents and mortgage lenders are.
Forecast: What does the future for Orange County real estate look like?
Historically, our new rates are still low, and we should be looking at them as the new normal. According to multiple experts, we shouldn’t expect rates to go back down again in the near future. It’s still a great time to buy a home if you’re renting, and the renters were some of the most ignored in our previous market, so you will see them come back into the fray. Buyers who were at the cusp of affordability may unfortunately be priced out of the market, or they will be offering lower than asking price because they are literally chasing the property that was affordable with 6 month ago rates.
Sellers who listed 30-100K over the previous summer comps will likely have to reduce price or face their listing expiring. It’s a good idea to research sales in the community (comps) the last 90 days, and see what the median comp range is. Listing at the top of your comp range with the current market temperature could cause the home to sit frozen on the market. Not to worry though, properly priced homes in Southern California will always sell. Make sure you work with a seasoned professional and list at the right price from day 1, or you could suffer. Discount and ibuying brokerages don’t do well in this type of market – beware!
Many investors, seeing the writing on the wall with interest rates, are putting 1031 exchanges in motion, and adjusting portfolios accordingly. Some are tiring of strict Los Angeles rent control and housing regulations, and are opting to relocate investments to neighboring counties or even other states that don’t impress as many regulations or red tape.
If you’re curious about the range of your home’s worth, including short term and long term rental rate averages, click here: https://hmbt.co/TTNcDG – If you would like to receive monthly Orange County and Los Angeles real estate reports simply sign in to the link above for a free account – it’s that easy! Angie is only a call or text away if you would like a full broker price opinion on your home or investment property 949-338-7408.
Creative, Affordable, Durable, Sustainable, & Adorable ADUs in California
Cal Earth inspirational workshops and hands-on classes offer a new way to build real estate
Today we took a field trip to the Cal Earth build & test site in Hesperia. This educational builder camp sits in Hesperia, CA because it has extreme heat, freezing cold temps, and is on a fault line. Additionally, Hesperia experiences flash flooding & washes, so it makes for a perfect test ground.
Superadobe buildings are Seismic & earthquake proof, fireproof, flood, & wind proof. They can handle snow loads and pressure. They don’t need rebar or concrete to build. They look super creative & flowy, but they are actually extremely structurally sound.
Many of the test structures at the Hesperia Cal Earth site are not maintained on purpose to see how they stand the test of time. This school has truly been built out by its students, and the first structure built in 1990’s is still standing today. It was such a fascinating experience!
Meet the Superadobe
If needed for refuge or quick builds, these structures can pop up camp in just a couple days. ‘Water village’, pictured here with Cal Earth volunteers Giovanni & Marco, is an on-site example of a cluster of single room homes, built to serve as a replica of what an actual refugee community might look like. Although designed to be temporary housing, this little village has been standing for the last 20 years.
Since superadobes are so durable, they can also stand the test of time for single family builds. Don’t feel like buying a ‘cookie cutter’ tract home? Cal Earth Institute offers preapproved plans – if you sign up for one of their workshops you’ll get a copy 😉 Of course, this is a part of the reason why we went. What’s a workshop without implementation?
We’d love to hear in the comments if you know anyone who has built a superadobe, or if you plan to build one yourself.
What Makes an Adobe Home a Superadobe?
Nader Khalili is the inventor & architect from Iran, who used to build skyscrapers for a living in Los Angeles, but he wasn’t fulfilled. He discovered Rumi, & changed his direction into sustainable building.
Not long after, Nader invented the ‘superabdobe’; which is a permanent Adobe structure. Rather than a traditional Adobe that cannot withstand a natural disaster, Superadobes are much more durable. Nader has since moved on from this realm, but his vision lives on through Cal Earth Institute.
Khalili loved biomimicry, mimicking designs and structures from nature. His designs include the ‘Seashell dome’; ‘Reptile walls’; and the ‘Koala pouch’. Not everything was biomimicry, however. The dome-obsessed architect also incorporated roofless domes for high heat; apses, and pottery domes.
Supply List to Build a Superadobe ADU
I loved how easy the supply list was. These were things that even I could carry, and didn’t need a huge truck to transport.
- 4 pt double pronged galvanized barbed wire; 12-14 gague thickness.
- 14 inch diameter bags to make 12 inch walls, just FYI you lose some width when you fill the bag with earth.
- Need coffee cans, or gallon buckets, depending on width of bags.
- Shovels,
- Tamper,
- Wheelbarrow,
- Scissors or knife
- A cement mixer or electric mixer makes things go way quicker.
- Level
- Wire cutters
- Water source
Want the FULL supply list? That’s still super short? Just TEXT “Cal Earth Supply List” to Angie at 949-338-7408.
Another thing that’s really neat is you don’t have to build a shelter at all with the earthbags from Cal Earth. You can build benches, stairs, planters, pools, fountains, fences…an Amphitheater for your Hipcamp…or whatever flowy and functional structure your mind conjures up 🙂
Pictured right is Daniel & our new Cal Earth workshop friends practicing with with the tamper. I can just see his wheels turning about what the next Flower Den Superadobe Retreat will look like – stay tuned, LOL!
Tips For Building a Superadobe Structure
A fun fact about superadobes is the heat transfer from outside is only at about one inch per hour. It won’t get too hot or too cold over the 12 hour daylight or nighttime hours. Not only do adobe’s prevent heat, they absorbs it, so that warmth slowly transfers inside to keep you comfortable at night.
Our first tips are about measuring and prepping properly for your fill:
- When laying barbed wire, measure from the center of your bag, and add 2 extra feet.
- When measuring for bag, walk the perimeter of the circle, and add 3 feet before cutting.
- Fold long bags in half & mark the middle. ‘Cuff’ the ends so plastic doesn’t fly all over.
- Partially flip bags inside out from each side, this makes them easier to fill. Be mindful to ONLY fill one side at a time.
More Pointers for a Proper Adobe Build
Since your main ingredient is earth from the land you’re standing on, you’ll want to ensure you’ve got the right mix. As you’ll be investing a lot of sweat equity, make sure to do a soil test before building to know how far you’ll need to go down in the earth to get past the living matter. It was stressed multiple times, make sure no living matter or roots are in your mix. Rocks bigger than your palm need to go too. If you can close your hand around it, then it’s fine, but larger than that should be tossed from the mix. Don’t worry though, it’s very forgiving to make the mix – there are adobe and superadobe structures across the world, & in all different types of terrain.
The tips kept flying fast at our one day workshop; I caught as many as possible. Figure they are best served here as bullet points:
- Keep everything dry & well ventilated if you are building in a wet area.
- Thickness of the wall depends on diameter of the build.
- Stabilize to resist erosion in flood zones, plan French drains & diversion. Your french drains can even be designed to water the landscape 😉
- Plan where the furniture will go before you start to build because a lot of it is built in; remember most furniture is square.. and there will be limited to zero squared angles in an adobe build.
- In case you’re only reading the bullets here, reminder to never use the top 1 ft of soil. Dig deeper to get to the inert materials like the sand, gravel, clay & silt.
- Orient windows south. Create & plan ‘Wind scoops’ facing the main direction of breeze in summer.
- PVC pipes, ceramic tubes, or even recycled bottles can be used for windows. Check out the custom ceramic windows pictured here.
- If doing radiant heat in floors, insulate under first!
- Utilize rocket stoves for simple heat sources.
- By the time you build up, its already compacted.
- Plaster right away, but don’t lay it in too thick, or else it may crack.
- Mesh or chicken wire is recommended to prevent cracking.
- Waterproof paint in wet areas.
- Note that limewash interior is anti fungal.
- If the bag needs to move, lift & pull. Don’t push.
Super Adobe Construction Made Simple
In essence, 4 main ingredients can build a pretty badass house. Sandbags, barbed wire, earth, & stabilizer. So easy. Sandbags can be made from polypropylene, hemp, or jute fiber. You can use long bags designed for adobes, or, just normal sandbags might work best if you’re doing the build with only a couple people. Stabilizer is added in the bag, like lime or plaster. From there, you’ll just cover the bags from UV rays and the elements while you build with a tarp, and you’ll be good. Note that jute might mold or rot, so it’s not recommended to build with it in winter. Supposedly jute is better for short term structures. The barbed wire acts as a velcro or glue between layers of bag and prevents the building from laterally sliding.
It seemed like the toughest part of the day was ‘completing the circle’ – which was the act of finishing each circular level on the stem wall. (That’s the straight vertical wall) It wasn’t difficult so to speak, just a process of folding both ends away from you, after propping the bag up with your feet (known laughingly as ‘bag wrangling’). Once the ends are properly sealed, you meet them up while keeping a tamp as a buttress at the seam. Then tamp the edge a bit so water goes out not in, with a slight angle to the outside. You can literally hear when the earthbags are tamped to correct compaction, the sound is louder and almost echos.
Additional important building techniques include a spring line for keeping the dome structure and trajectory of the dome even, and a compass to guide with proper perimeter and height. All these things were hand created with various tools and scraps we had on site!
Some Challenges Surrounding Superadobe Plans & Builds
No good thing comes without hurdles. In our current days of ‘buying a template ADU off Amazon’, the custom adobe build can face opposition.
Because the design elements with Superadobes are endless, it causes city officials to scratch their heads a bit. Designing these structures to easily follow the contour in the land and mold to the topography makes each one super cool, and super unique.
Let’s be honest….building officials are used to templates and squared angles. They don’t always understand domes, arches, and curves; and they aren’t extensively educated about them in the field. Confusion and inspectors don’t mix, so this means they can tend to deny the plans for your dream adobe without the proper education.
There was a point in time when Cal Earth had pre-permitted build plans, but alas, codes are everchanging… and they need to update permits. Feel free to donate time or funds to help Cal Earth get to the point of offering preapproved plans again.
Our Action Items to Support Superadobes
Locally here in CA, I’m going to see if we can get the City of Santa Ana to approve something. As Orange County’s epicenter, Santa Ana already has a ton of ADUs. Plus, many of the lots are flat with ample space for an additional small structure. And… my partner in life, Daniel, plans to talk to the building department in Sedona, AZ. We know Taos, NM is friendly to superadobes and green buildings; and would love it if you comment other adobe friendly build areas for the fellow nomads reading this blog 😉
In the meantime, one potential workaround with your city or HOA, depending on which one you’re in, is the umbrella of California’s statewide ADU law passed in 2020, SB 13.
How to Spread the Word about Superadobes and Get Involved
Of course, social media awareness always helps! You can follow & support Cal-Earth’s initiatives on Insta or Facebook. It also helps if you sign up for one of their affordable and educational hands on adobe building workshops.
If you’re inspired or thinking of building an ADU in Orange County, reach out, I’d love to come do a video tour whether you’re in progress, or have the finished adobe complete. Thought we could wrap this post up with one of Cal Earth’s favorite quotes from, you guessed, it, Rumi:
California Introduces New Legislation: Senate Bill 9 – What Is It?
Senate Bill 9 is a new California state law that would allow homeowners to divide their property into 2 lots and place up to 4 homes in areas that were previously only allowed one home, regardless of local zoning. You could use SB9 to split your lot (and sell that part of your yard), add a 2nd home to your lot, or both. Taking effect on January 1, 2022, SB9 intends to address the statewide housing crisis California is experiencing. The goal is to expand housing production as the continued housing crisis grows. The hope is that this bill will expand housing options for people of all incomes and expand the opportunities available for homeowners and renters. Two homes could be placed in what is now considered a single-family lot. The new lots would be required to contain 40 to 60 percent of the original lot space. What does this mean for homeowners and the real estate market? Two important things: 1) You could keep your current home but earn additional revenue by selling a part of your property to a new neighbor and 2) this bill could potentially add as many as 800,000 new units to the California market. SB9 would require cities and counties to approve of the housing development proposals if they meet the specified size and design standards. Some of the requirements considered for the proposed housing development include but not limited to: the area does not require demolition, ordinance, is not located within a historic district, is not included on the State Historic Resources Inventory, or is not within a site that is legally designated as a city or county landmark, historic property or district. If the identified requirements are met, the application for a housing development could be approved without a hearing. The new four-plexes would still need to follow local zoning rules and regulations in regards to things such as height and yard requirements. To learn more about the new legislation, here are some helpful links that provide additional detail: 1) National Law ReviewIncludes a summary of SB8, SB9 and SB10. Key takeaways are also included for quick reference. 2) CA Legislative Information The details of Senate Bill No. 9 and the proposed bill |
Blockchain and how it’s changing the future of Real Estate
Tuned in to an interesting webinar this week hosted by Dan Smith with Eric Bryant from First American Data & Analytics; they were talking about real estate on the blockchain. Personally I can’t wait for this to happen, I spend half my life ‘grown up babysitting’ to maintain timelines and accountability during the escrow process. I know the blockchain will eliminate quite a bit of that.
Fibree is one of the first adopters, and they are now in 70 regions. They are a real estate technology platform that works with blockchain – keep an eye on them. Rather than talking about too many companies…let’s talk concept first.
What is Blockchain, and how does it affect real estate?
Blockchain defined: Blockchain is a shared, immutable ledger that facilitates the process of recording transactions and tracking assets in a business network. An asset can be tangible (a house, car, cash, land) or intangible (intellectual property, patents, copyrights, branding). Virtually anything of value can be tracked and traded on a blockchain network, reducing risk and cutting costs for all involved.
https://www.ibm.com/topics/what-is-blockchain
Now that you understand what blockchain is, here are a few specific ways it can positively affect the real estate industry as a whole:
- Decreases time necessary to close property transactions (from 30-45 days down to possibly just minutes or hours)
- Offers security, trust, and transparency to the transaction
- Creates an unhackable public record
- Reduces potential for real estate fraud or data entry errors
- Streamlines the escrow process
- Upholds accountability
Question? Will real estate transactions on the blockchain eliminate escrow agents? Transaction coordinators?
Notice we say “how does blockchain”, not “how can blockchain” affect the space. Blockchain is already starting integrations with real estate transactions, and it is likely the future of our industry, similar to the way the Internet disrupted the status quo (in a good way) many moons ago.
Fractional Property ownerships and Tokenization using Blockchain
Tokenization is simply digital fractionalization – it allows you to own a piece of something. Ever wanted to own a piece of a property? Or maybe you already own a traditional timeshare. Bet that was fun to buy, LOL. But what about finding your next investment from the comfort of your own home? RealT based in Detroit is currently selling real estate on the blockchain, and there are many others in the space expected to follow.
Investor groups and investment firms are already successfully selling STO (Secure Token Offering) properties and this opens doors for thousands of new buyers to enter into investing. Want to see? Check out SolidBlock – it looks like any normal property search site…BUT… you can pay with wire, check, or crypto. Soon enough, property search platforms like this will be popping up all over the world.
Another place you can buy land, the entire plot of it, is Fabrica, which allows you to buy or sell your land completely digitally with blockchain technology.
Smart Contracts and Real Estate Transactions
Smart contracts are digital transactions being coordinated on the blockchain, and they will help maintain timelines and accountability. Smart contracts are very similar to paper contracts, working on ‘if –> then’ scenarios, but everything is done virtually instead of with paper. Smart contracts have a higher level of security and they always report and record progress honestly…which does NOT happen all the time with our current escrow process.
One thing I found interesting is our local board of Realtors has over 10,000 members, and there were less than 50 of us watching this webinar. As usual, it seems like the real estate industry tends to cling to their ways. As a techie, I embrace new technology and try to help my clients ride the wave.
Crypto loans – Something to keep an eye on
One thing that could completely change the mortgage space is cryptocurrency loans. Wallets like Celsius and others use actual data to digitally approve loans, much better than the ‘preapprovals’ that lenders offer today. I would personally love to see more of this, because it eliminates loan discrimination and assures the seller a buyer is qualified. Plus, a crypto loan will close much quicker than the traditional big banks. Less headaches will equal more people in the space, and more homeowners, which makes my heart smile to think about.
If you’re sitting on a pile of crypto from the bull run and would like to ‘take profits’, we can help with escrow companies who are familiar with cryptocurrency closings. If you’d like to cash out crypto to buy a home, OR just transfer crypto coins for a home purchase without cashing out first, we can help with the proper referrals or team. Feel free to reach out and text Angie at 949-338-7408 or comment here anytime you’d like to talk tech & real estate!
Read Full Post | Make a Comment ( None so far )Buying Your First Home in California: How to Dig up Down Payment Funds
Today we’re spending a Saturday in Pomona at FACE LA’s Homebuying Fair – we met them through NAWRB and LOVE what these organizations stand for. FACE has compiled quite a few programs to help you with down payment funds, and have relationships with LOTS of generous banks who can help with lower interest rates, buy downs, silent seconds, and more. Sharing is caring…so read below to find some free down payment funds to get your family into a home!Tip 1: Find a lender familiar with the Community Reinvestment Act, and align yourself with a housing non-profit like FACE.
Tip 2: Explore Down Payment Programs & properly prepare to buy a home with education
These purchase programs (and many others) have some caveats. The home must be your primary residence, and you must pass a homebuyer education class (approx 8 hours). Did you know taking homebuyer education classes before you buy make you 30% less likely to go into foreclosure? This is why many city, bank, and state programs will require you take one before receiving funds. Everyone wants you to succeed in your homeownership venture, so there are milestones like this in place to set you up to win.
Tip 3: Use OPM (Other People’s Money) to Help with your Down Payment
Tip 4: Layer your SoCal Down Payment Program benefits with bank programs too:
It was great to see so many banks offering programs to first time buyers. Here’s just a few of the programs our banking panelists talked about. If you’d like to get more info, sometime’s it’s easiest to just call FACE or check out an upcoming Home Fair – like OC Home Fair every January.
- Bank of America currently offers a 10K grant offering in low to moderate income communities, PLUS a 7500 closing cost credit that applies to the entire country, check into it! In many states 7500 would cover the majority of your closing costs! 🙂
- Wells Fargo has a lift program that gives 25K.
- Boston Private has a 1% down conventional first time buyer program without mortgage insurance (when layered w other programs) that considers the entire scenario. If you’re self employed.. this is a great bank to call.
Union Bank has a 3K down payment assistance grant for closing costs or down payment assistance, which can be layered with other programs. Sorry couldn’t find the link for this exact program, but here are the low down offerings!- HSBC offers 7K toward closing costs for first time home buyers, and also 1/2 off your interest rate! Their credit requirement is only 620 so they are good if your credit is bad.
- US Bank has 95-97% loan to value offerings & non-traditional credit consideration. They have a Mortgage Insurance program where they pick it up on your behalf. If you want just a lot, ask about their land program! You may also qualify for the American Dream program.
- Bank of Hope has an in house underwriting Dept with a quick turnaround. They also waive mortgage application fees if you have an account with them.
- Loan Depot – prides themselves on being very familiar with DAP – down payment assistance programs. They like to layer, and they can take credit as low as a 520 score.
NAWRB supports ALL women as they march to the beat of their own drum. Photo below: 
So how can we help international buyers make the most of their money, so they can close easy and afford to pay more for our properties?! One way is 
Orange County Real Estate Success 