2018 Housing Market Forecast by Steven Thomas
Always love to hear Steven Thomas’ yearly real estate forecast – he’s locally famous here in Orange County for his great quantitative economic forecasts. Today he spoke at Orange County Association of Realtors and gave us the scoop….here goes!
It’s a HOT Seller’s Market in OC. Already.
The average OC resident moves every 21 years. This is creating a seller draught for all homes on the market under 1.5M. On the other hand, if you’re lucky enough to own a property over 1.5M, that’s a buyer’s market right now. Typically the Orange County market is slow from Nov – Jan, heats up after Super Bowl, and stays hot well through May. Last year, our market was hotttttt the.whole.year. And it’s continuing into 2018 here.
I’m Going to Wait to Buy….Famous Last Words.
Buyers….please don’t wait for more inventory or prices to go down. Neither is projected to transpire anytime soon. The next trend that comes will be higher interest rates, and that will only compound your issues. Yes, it’s rough to find a home right now. You’ll have to compete with multiple offers, but the good news is that you’re buying a solid long term investment at historically low interest rates, so keep on it! With the right agent you will secure your dream home.
Good News Graph: Interest Rates Over the Last 50 Years
These interest rates are an absolute GIFT. Steven’s words: “Don’t look a gift horse in the mouth”. It’s ridiculous not to consider buying while you’re trashing at least 25K/year in rent. That’s like….a significant portion of your down payment. Because you can get in with just 3.5% down now 😉
Buyers, it’s time to suit up in your battle gear and plan to write at least 4-5 offers. It’s not you. It’s not your agent. It’s INVENTORY. We had 6% fewer homes come on the market in 2017 than the year before. We’re below 4,000 homes on the market, and our long term average is 8,000. We’re starting out this year similar to 2013, which was the lowest inventory in 5 years. There are only 91 condos active right now below 250K, so the low end is literally disappearing. And you can’t blame it on the foreigners, either. International buying is an insignificant 3%. Get in while you still can, PLEASE!
Homeowners, you’ve got the upper hand because you’re just not selling. Below is a comparison of 2016 inventory vs 2017 inventory. Almost everything is down. Yet the population and OC relocations continue to grow. Which are causing prices of our skimpy inventory to grow.
Where Are All of Our Property Sellers?
Why isn’t everyone selling right now? We’re in an up market…right? Well, there’s a slew of reasons, and here are some of them:
- refinanced into a 3% loan they just don’t want to lose
- it’s ‘cool’ to stay put right now
- not enough building to entice the move
- property taxes are grandfathered in low
- watching HGTV all day & remodeling instead
- nothing to buy (such a VICIOUS cycle)
Some people are literally becoming prisoners in their own homes, especially with the new tax laws. 64% of baby boomers literally plan to die in their home, following the hugely popular ‘aging in place’ trend. Until some of these boomers start to sell…or croak.. our market will be stalled.
If you’re considering selling… please do your fellow OC residents a favor & just do it! You’ve literally got buyers in line waiting to see your home. Here’s an inventory & demand year to year comparison:
Scared to sell? What about Taxes & Tax Reform?
Now that the max deduction is $12,000 for singles, and the max property tax deduction is $10,000, will that affect our market? It will absolutely affect many, because the median home price in Orange County is now over $700,000. Some buyers will not be able to write off everything they used to. Steven admits, It may NOT be a tax benefit to own a home in some in the upper ranges. But…It’s still way better than trashing 3-5K/mo on renting, though. And luxury rent is even higher than that. Steven doesn’t think the tax laws will have an adverse affect on our pricing at all this year; we are still projecting appreciation.
Steven Thomas’ 2018 Housing Market Forecast:
- Low distressed inventory
- return of the unrealistic overpriced seller
- normal housing cycle
- anemic inventory to start the year
- increase in number of move up sellers
- mild appreciation 4-5% (perspective. the ‘average’ home is due to increase 30K or more in value)
- interest rates to land at 4.25%
Only time will tell if these projections are right – but Steven’s usually on point. Feel free to comment your opinions and we’ll revisit this post in about a year 🙂 If you’d like more updates like this throughout the year, just fill out the form below or text ‘subscribe’ to Angie at 949-338-7408.
Orange County Real Estate Success 
Hi Angie, Thanks for writing this post on the Orange County, I enjoyed it. It’s kind of mysterious compared to San Diego and Los Angeles http://gordcollins.com/real-estate/los-angeles-real-estate-forecast-2016-to-2020/. I appreciate the info. Good point about the grandfathered taxes, and surprised to hear Lawrence Yun looks to Steven’s forecasts. Good luck with your real estate biz in 2018!
Gord Collins
January 27, 2018