Today one of our favorite forecasters, Steven Thomas, gave his thoughts on closing out the crazy 2020 Covid real estate market and what we expect to see here in 2021. If you love stats, be sure to subscribe to our email list, as we send out Reports on Housing statistics monthly. These reports will keep you on top of exactly what is happening right now with property prices, average days on market, and demand.

We’ve had a really interesting year in real estate, almost flipped from our normal Orange County trends. We were slower in the spring, obviously due to quarantine and virus setbacks (coined ‘The Pandession’). Then we heated up in summer and are still going strong here in fall, when things usually cool.
The pandemic really made people think about what they wanted in a home. And now, they are going out to get it. Sometimes it’s a larger yard, other times a pool, being closer to loved ones, or relocating to a rural environment. Change is brewing in all levels of our housing market.
2020 has seen a SURGE in Luxury demand and sales, and we are seeing it in our team deals as well. Here’s a visual for a better picture:

Demand far outweighs supply, so almost every listing is selling with multiple offers at this point in time. Will it continue? Read on…
One of the factors that will affect our market significantly is Coronavirus numbers and which way they are swinging. If we end up in quarantine again, it WILL affect all markets, including housing, so keep that wild card in mind as we enter into 2021.
Foreclosure Predictions for 2021
Should you be worried about foreclosures? Waiting for that screaming deal on one??? Not really. Less than 6% of homeowners are on forbearance or late on their mortgage. That’s not enough to create a ‘foreclosure wave’…even if ALL of them get foreclosed on. This chart helps to tell part of the story. In 2006, owners didn’t have much equity. In 2020, owners have a LOT of equity.

Due to this equity, the forbearance options, and the rates driving buyers, Steven does NOT expect any wave of foreclosures in 2021.
What about the Rental Moratorium?
Approximately 20% of renters are late on their rent. At first that number seems like WOW…but…rewind to Oct 2019… and the tardy-on-rent number was ALSO…20%. So landlords aren’t hurt that bad, even though renters are on a break until Jan 31st 2021 with the rental moratorium here in the state of California.
Will Housing Demand Stay High in 2021?
Demand is strongest it’s been since Sept 2012 – eight years. If you think we’ve been busy hustling homes, this year is even busier. Demand is expected to slightly drop during the holiday season for November and December, but it will still be higher than the last 8 years. If you have a home to sell before Dec 31st – get in touch – it’s totally a possibility!
Inventory is the lowest it’s been since 2013 – pushing the average days on the market in OC to under 40. A hot seller’s market is under 60 average DOM….so we are in a hot HOT seller’s market, which not even the election division is extinguishing.
Should I buy a home in OC before 2021?
Short answer: Yes. Interest rates are LOW. Demand is high. Prices continue to go up. Lucky for our buyers, even with these prices.. the payment is more affordable than it would have been a few years ago. Check out this comparison:

Interest rates drive affordability. Right now your payment is SO affordable. If you can qualify to buy, it is a fabulous time to make a purchase. In Steven’s words…’You’ll be kicking yourself if you don’t’ LOL. We know, you don’t have the down payment saved. But let’s have a conversation with a parent or grandparent who has equity, or get you crowdfunding your down payment with Vow2Save.
2021 Forecast according to Reports on Housing
Uncertainty with Covid, vaccines, Washington DC, travel, and employment can all make things sticky. If we continue to experience the same demand, things can get sticky.
- Prediction: Real estate will enter 2021 strong and remain that way for at least half the year.
- Prediction: Appreciation 4-7%. Prices are NOT expected to go down at all in 2021
- Prediction: Upper ranges will continue to rise
- Prediction: Closed sales should double what they were in 2020. (from 4 to 8%)
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Did you know 1 in 10 US residents are considering owning international real estate? But how can you protect yourself from making a lemon investment? Thanks to OCR’s Global committee, we have some pointers for you!
Nicaragua has been a growing spot to get deep discounts in real estate, and Michael personally lived there for 14 years, while raising 2 young daughters. It usually takes about 6-9 months after you visit Nicaragua and sign documents to receive your title, and buying is friendly to foreigners. The country has beautiful scenery, and also offers the following benefits:
Belize is a tiny country that wasn’t on the radar at all until recently, and now it’s exploding. The title process is 3-6 months, but you can complete a property transaction in just an hour if you’re there in person. English is the official language, so it’s easy to read contracts. Prices are reasonable right now, and the hotspot to check out is Ambergris Caye. Belize was also voted the “most wished for place to visit” on AirBnB, so an excellent consideration for your vacation rental. If you’re thinking of AirBnB, you will have to pay hotel tax, so be sure to factor that in. Speaking of air…air travel has doubled over the last 3 years to Belize, and there is still plenty of room for growth. 
Real Estate expert Alvaro Quirante presented about Riviera Maya and the consistent growth of traffic into the Cancun airport, which creates opportunity. Travel is consistent all year long, so there is no on or off season. Currently they are creating a huge marina, and a theme park, which will create 5000 new jobs in the area. Tulum has been one of the cities that gets the best capital gains each year. A few reasons:
















Today weβre spending a Saturday in Pomona at
These purchase programs (and many others) have some caveats. The home must be your primary residence, and you must pass a homebuyer education class (approx 8 hours). Did you know taking homebuyer education classes before you buy make you 30% less likely to go into foreclosure? This is why many city, bank, and state programs will require you take one before receiving funds. Everyone wants you to succeed in your homeownership venture, so there are milestones like this in place to set you up to win.
Union Bank has a 3K down payment assistance grant for closing costs or down payment assistance, which can be layered with other programs. Sorry couldn’t find the link for this exact program, but here are the 






NAWRB supports ALL women as they march to the beat of their own drum. Photo below:Β 
Do you love a good nail biting, back and forth drama flick? Or a hilarious Groundhog Day story that just couldn’t get any wackier? Since sometimes I feel like I’m in the middle of both of these flicks without a camera…I thought I would share with you. Getting this out there should feed your appetite for a good story, while I practice some humility and potentially lessen the PTSD. And **action**




