Archive for October, 2020
2021 Real Estate Market Predictions for Orange County, CA
Today one of our favorite forecasters, Steven Thomas, gave his thoughts on closing out the crazy 2020 Covid real estate market and what we expect to see here in 2021. If you love stats, be sure to subscribe to our email list, as we send out Reports on Housing statistics monthly. These reports will keep you on top of exactly what is happening right now with property prices, average days on market, and demand.
We’ve had a really interesting year in real estate, almost flipped from our normal Orange County trends. We were slower in the spring, obviously due to quarantine and virus setbacks (coined ‘The Pandession’). Then we heated up in summer and are still going strong here in fall, when things usually cool.
The pandemic really made people think about what they wanted in a home. And now, they are going out to get it. Sometimes it’s a larger yard, other times a pool, being closer to loved ones, or relocating to a rural environment. Change is brewing in all levels of our housing market.
2020 has seen a SURGE in Luxury demand and sales, and we are seeing it in our team deals as well. Here’s a visual for a better picture:
Demand far outweighs supply, so almost every listing is selling with multiple offers at this point in time. Will it continue? Read on…
One of the factors that will affect our market significantly is Coronavirus numbers and which way they are swinging. If we end up in quarantine again, it WILL affect all markets, including housing, so keep that wild card in mind as we enter into 2021.
Foreclosure Predictions for 2021
Should you be worried about foreclosures? Waiting for that screaming deal on one??? Not really. Less than 6% of homeowners are on forbearance or late on their mortgage. That’s not enough to create a ‘foreclosure wave’…even if ALL of them get foreclosed on. This chart helps to tell part of the story. In 2006, owners didn’t have much equity. In 2020, owners have a LOT of equity.
Due to this equity, the forbearance options, and the rates driving buyers, Steven does NOT expect any wave of foreclosures in 2021.
What about the Rental Moratorium?
Approximately 20% of renters are late on their rent. At first that number seems like WOW…but…rewind to Oct 2019… and the tardy-on-rent number was ALSO…20%. So landlords aren’t hurt that bad, even though renters are on a break until Jan 31st 2021 with the rental moratorium here in the state of California.
Will Housing Demand Stay High in 2021?
Demand is strongest it’s been since Sept 2012 – eight years. If you think we’ve been busy hustling homes, this year is even busier. Demand is expected to slightly drop during the holiday season for November and December, but it will still be higher than the last 8 years. If you have a home to sell before Dec 31st – get in touch – it’s totally a possibility!
Inventory is the lowest it’s been since 2013 – pushing the average days on the market in OC to under 40. A hot seller’s market is under 60 average DOM….so we are in a hot HOT seller’s market, which not even the election division is extinguishing.
Should I buy a home in OC before 2021?
Short answer: Yes. Interest rates are LOW. Demand is high. Prices continue to go up. Lucky for our buyers, even with these prices.. the payment is more affordable than it would have been a few years ago. Check out this comparison:
Interest rates drive affordability. Right now your payment is SO affordable. If you can qualify to buy, it is a fabulous time to make a purchase. In Steven’s words…’You’ll be kicking yourself if you don’t’ LOL. We know, you don’t have the down payment saved. But let’s have a conversation with a parent or grandparent who has equity, or get you crowdfunding your down payment with Vow2Save.
2021 Forecast according to Reports on Housing
Uncertainty with Covid, vaccines, Washington DC, travel, and employment can all make things sticky. If we continue to experience the same demand, things can get sticky.
- Prediction: Real estate will enter 2021 strong and remain that way for at least half the year.
- Prediction: Appreciation 4-7%. Prices are NOT expected to go down at all in 2021
- Prediction: Upper ranges will continue to rise
- Prediction: Closed sales should double what they were in 2020. (from 4 to 8%)
Want to stay up to date on the Orange County real estate market? Simply fill out the form below and we’ll start sending you Steven’s Reports on Housing via email!
4 Ways to Decorate with Upcycled and Repurposed Items
Due to COVID-19, we have all been spending more time at home than ever before. Making your home feel cozy and inviting has never been so important.
We all have those random “it might come in handy some day” or “I might find a place for that…” items that we have been staring at for the last few months.. We just aren’t ready to let go of it yet. There’s no better way to revamp your home and your dated items than repurposing and upcycling!
To help you get started, we’ve picked four of our favorite (and…realistic) ideas for repurposing, resuing and upcycling your items.
- Bookcase to Coffee Bar
Transform your space and coffee game by upcycling an old book case or storage cabinet. Staying in more means bringing the coffee shop to you!
2. Repurpose Your Caddy for Craft Organization
Caddy’s have a unique look but don’t serve a clear purpose. Upgrade your craft room with this repurposed caddy for storing all of your utensils!
3. Repurpose Your Ladder for Blanket Storage
Ladders add height and texture to your room. To make the ladder functional, add your extra blankets for a cozy inviting look!
4. Repurpose Woven Baskets
Have baskets laying around that really don’t serve a purpose anymore? Spice up your wall decor by adding those baskets to the wall. The baskets add a unique look to your space and make a statement. Just simply place a nail in the center of the basket and create your own gallery design!
History and Current Rules of Fair Housing
It’s important to remember and understand where we have been, to have the best future possible. Today I had the pleasure of attending Young Professionals’ Network webinar on The History of Fair Housing.
Equality is an important topic of discussion in our country right now. One of the best ways we can honor our Constitution stating ‘all men are created equal’ is through housing.
For the purpose of learning and growing, let’s start with a summary of
Where we went wrong with discrimination in housing:
- ‘Men’ in the quote above meant white men who owned property; not women, nor men of color
- Real Estate boards prohibited women or blacks in the early 1900’s
- Redline (racially segregated) areas where residents could not get a mortgage were established
- Racially restrictive CC&R’s
- Federal Fair Housing Act was not passed until 1968
- Realtor Code did not prohibit discrimination until 1974 (that’s under 50 years ago…)
- Protected class of marital status only recognized since 2005 in California
- Gender identity was not protected until 2012 in CA
- AFFA Rule is rescinded in 2020 by POTUS. This took the teeth out of Fair Housing enforcement.
Yes, we went horribly wrong, but there are many ongoing efforts to bring about equal housing in the last few decades and today. This includes lobbying efforts from the National Association of Realtors, and California Association of Realtors to bring back the important elements in AFFA.
Did you know that nationwide there are 7 Fair Housing protected classes? In CA, there are 24 Fair Employment & Housing protected classes. When it comes to Fair Housing, the greater of regulations apply, not the lesser. So… if you are a landlord in California, you have 24 classes to remember to truly make unbiased decisions with your tenants. To help you, there is a new Fair Housing disclosure that is now included in each California purchase or lease agreement.Â
Sometimes discrimination can be subtle, or without malice. Here are just a few examples of Discrimination in Housing…some may come as a surprise to you.
What Discrimination in Housing Looks Like:
- Treating anyone unequally
- Failing to show a home or lease
- Offering unequal terms
- Advertising specific terms or preference
- Inquiring about a protected status
- Refusing to accomodate a disability (aka emotional support animals)
- Denying a family with children’s offer because you don’t think your pool or busy street is safe for them
- Refusing to rent an upper unit to an elderly tenant because you feel stairs are too dangerous
- Showing preference for one protected group above another (i.e. preferring a family with children over a gay couple)
- Not renting the home to a family with multiple kids because ‘the children will destroy the home’.
- Not treating everyone with the same professional courtesy (greetings, returning calls, tonality, response time)
- Buyer or agent ‘love letters’; especially those with photos
Up until this year, I was an agent sending & receiving love letters. I had no idea they were an indirect method of discrimination; and our stories previously helped my clients get the deal. 2020 brings about many changes, and I am happy to adjust course to assist in offering a better opportunity for all. Please, encourage other professionals in the industry and owners to practice making selling and leasing decisions based on criteria that does not exclude. I will recommend future sellers do not read letters during the decision making process. We can all improve from here and be better at this.
Here’s an interesting infographic with the most common Fair Housing complaints from 2018:
If you know someone who has been party to discrimination in housing, it’s important to educate, and to speak up. Here’s a link to submit a violation:
The only way we change the cycle and truly offer equal housing to all humans is through a system of ethics, awareness of implicit bias, and accountability measures. Feel free to comment your thoughts or experiences below – let’s bring about some positive acknowledgment to build better, stronger, more diverse communities together.Â
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