Informed Investor Alliance
Reverse Mortgages in Orange County – Love it or Leave it?
We’ve all heard good and bad about the reverse mortgage market, so today I went to a class given by Dirk Pierce with Retirement Funding Solutions at the OC Register building to find out more information. Knowledge is power, right?! Plus it’s not fair to form an opinion about something until the proper research and due diligence is done.
What is a Reverse Mortgage?
Basically, a reverse mortgage lets homeowners convert a portion of the equity in their homes into cash, and eliminate their monthly mortgage payments.
Interestingly enough, Reverse Mortgages are over 100 years old, and they are also available in Britain, Chile, Canada, New Zealand, Australia, and Korea. They were designed to help people who where house rich and cash poor, and were also known as ‘shared equity’. Fast forward to 1989, and Ronald Reagan helped to create the first government regulated Reverse Mortgage plans under the FHA umbrella.
Another variation of a reverse mortgage is HECM for Purchase; both share similiar features:
- Both are FHA
- Neither have monthly payment requirements
- Both offer adjustable or fixed rates
You’ll use HECM for purchase when you are planning to buy a new property, for example to downsize, etc. Reverse Mortgage is when you stay in your existing home, and simply refinance.
HECM for purchase is an FHA loan that enables a person age 62+ to purchase a home with as little as 40% to 51% down and never make monthly mortgage payments. So basically you can get a 500K home for 250K and never make payments if you meet the age requirements. BUT….interest still accrues on your mortgage balance. The nice thing about the programs is they come with the following protections:
- Guarantee that FHA will honor the terms of the loan if the lender becomes insolvent
- Guarantee that you would never owe more than the house was worth
- Guarantee that there is no personal liability for repayment of the loan by you or your heirs. It is truly a non-recourse loan.
- Guarantees that the loan won’t become due until the last remaining borrower leaves the home.
Frequently there is remaining equity in the home…what happens with that? After the home is sold, any remaining equity goes to the heirs.
Do you qualify for a reverse mortgage?
- minimal credit requirements
- minimal debt to income ratios
What types of properties are allowed?
- single family
- PUD
- 1-4 unit property
- FHA approved condo
- new construction
- NOT second homes or investment properties, sorry!
More reverse mortgage facts:
- Only YOUR name is on the title, so don’t believe the rumors that the bank is on title.
- The loan becomes due when the last remaining borrower leaves the home.
- You can sell whenever you want to, and they do not have a prepayment penalty.
- Family has up to a year to either refinance your property with a normal mortgage or sell it before the loan is officially due.
Reverse Mortgages are all age based, so contact Dirk today if you’d like a chart to see what your down payment would be at your age. Want to learn more? Register for his class at http://www.OCHomeFair.com on Jan 30th, 2016.
Read Full Post | Make a Comment ( None so far )2016 Real Estate Forecast for Orange County
Today I had the pleasure of meeting Leslie Appleton Young with California Association of Realtors, and hearing a ton of facts and figures about where real estate stands in the state of California. Wow have we come a long way since 2007! Congrats to all of you who held on to your property!!
As of 2015, the housing market has officially recovered, and we’re rolling along at a steady pace. Over 94% of homes were equity sales this year 🙂 Median price is $482,150. Jobs look good; OC is actually #3 on the list up 3.2%, and construction is #2 on the industry list. All great news for housing. But the big question is…
What About Interest Rates????????
Leslie doesn’t really believe rates are going to jump the way other forecasters do. Well that’s good news…if she’s right 🙂 She said there may be an increase next year, but it happens, she’s not expecting rates to go up until March 2016…so you’ve got a little time to get going! (But please note the best time to buy in OC is always Oct-Jan)
Market Stats & Demographics
We are below average with first time buyers in the market right now, less than 30%. On the other hand, over 30% of properties sold this year went to all cash investors. 75% of boomers are homeowners. 20% of millennials are homeowners. The good news is that 43% of all boomers worry about their children’s down payment… and are willing to help their millennial offspring with gift funds. International buyers are actually down to 4% this year, they were at 8% in 2013. 45% of Millennials have NO IDEA if they could qualify for a loan or not. What?! Need to check on that kiddos! 🙂
If you’d like all of CAR’s facts, figures, and 2016 economic forecast click here.
Why aren’t people buying homes?
- Affordability
- Inventory
- Foreclosure pipeline is dry
- Trouble qualifying for a loan
- They’re happy where they are (average time between homes right now is 10 years)
Regardless of what the facts & figures say, home prices are on the rise right now and many people are getting priced out of the market. Don’t let this happen to you – TAKE ADVANTAGE of interest rates and consider picking up an investment or upsizing to build a strong portfolio and long term wealth! Tweet Angie today @angieweeks or text or call 949-338-7408.
Read Full Post | Make a Comment ( None so far )Experienced Developer Seeking Investors for Immediate Opportunity
Attention Investors:
We’re working with an experienced developer of over 30 years on multiple projects. He’s originally from the east coast, and is expanding his successful ideas west. He’s seeking investors here, and asked us to reach out to our sphere! You can meet him in person to ask questions & find our more details on Oct 20th, 2015, 1-2pm at our office in Corona del Mar.
If you’d like to partner on investment property, read on for specifics.. maybe this equity partner opportunity is for you.
Preliminary Equity Partner Participation:
- Separate LLC’s will be formed to procure entitlements;
- This entitlement process will be undertaken by our developer who has completed over 20 similar projects. Expected turnaround is 3 – 9 months depending on local circumstances and planning requirements. Note: We have independent specialist contractors lined up to perform these services and obtain final approvals.
- Equity Partners will receive an Annual Return of 18 % secured by a promissory note.
- Equity Partners will be repaid in full at construction loan take-down
- Final Project Equity Entitlements (Equity Kicker) will be 5%
Development Details:
- Types of Projects which we are developing are:
- senior independent living
- senior assisted living
- memory care and congregate housing; each project managed by experienced successful licensed care provider to run the operations. See Items 8-10.
- Locations: Central to Southern California; we have pre-selected two locations: San Clemente and Mission Hills (Palm Dessert); with a potential #3 is in Santa Barbara.
- Project size: 150- 300 revenue Units
- Costs to build and furnish (excluding land) 25-30 million;
When turn-keyed and 70% occupied value multiplier is estimated to be 1.2 : For example: when our project million completed and occupied at 30,000,000 = 30m X 1.2 yields project value of $ 36 m to be purchased by REIT/ or other cash buyers within 1 year or less. (Some projects may be held longer if investors choose) - Three Money Sources will underwrite these loan guarantee programs after equity partnerships are formed.
- Project’s ROI: 20- 25 % annually
- All projects are Green (electricity, materials, smart utilities) and create up to 30% Investment tax credits and sheltered ongoing income which a portion will be available to the equity investors.
- Each project’s care operations will be contracted to a premier California Licensed Care Provider (LCP)
- Our private company, Banyan Care Group Inc (as the 20% GP with our 80% Limited Partners) will develop & provide the AAA facility for the LCP to run.
- The LCP contractually will provide resident management & services, controlled operating costs, and guaranteed revenues.
Great Townhouse Deal in Anaheim Hills – Just Listed!
866 South Yellowstone Anaheim Hills, CA 92808
New to the market in the heart of Anaheim Hills is a beautiful townhouse in the Summit Park community. Anaheim Hills is located just south of Yorba Linda, California, opposite the 91 freeway at Imperial Highway.
Priced BELOW recent comps at $399,900, this 1,113 square feet condo includes 2 spacious master bedrooms and a half bath downstairs for guests. With hardwood floors and a fireplace in the living room, it sure makes it cozy. Looking for convenience? A two car direct access garage is also included. Want privacy? You’re also in a very secluded location in the complex, with no one above or below!
The Summit Park community has plenty of amenities. Come take a dip in the pristine community pool or relax in the spa. Also includes a playground for the children and an exercise room!
Summit Park is close to shopping, freeways, and plenty of fun things to do on the weekends. Nearby is a nature center where you can hike and have fun. Looking for something different and interesting to do? Try sleeping outside in an amphitheater under the stars! And don’t forget to check out all the fabulous places to eat at Savvi Ranch!
Don’t miss out on this great townhouse, it’s going to sell fast! Come to the open house this Saturday May 23rd. Please email or give us a call with any questions or to set up a private showing. 877-230-3211; angie@askangie.com. Look forward to seeing you this Saturday!!
Read Full Post | Make a Comment ( None so far )PRE MLS OPEN HOUSE THIS WEEKEND! Investment opportunities in San Marcos – not on the MLS yet!
Located in the rolling foothills of northern San Diego County is San Marcos. Miles of trails in the local hills, unique dining and shopping opportunities in its retail centers, San Marcos has all the ingredients that make life enjoyable. Fifty-six miles of existing trails are great for hiking, biking, running, equestrian use and more! A popular destination is the top of Double Peak Park, which features a panorama of northern San Diego County from the highest coastal peak in the county. The Old California Restaurant largest dining and entertainment experience with eighteen restaurants. Only 12 miles to the Pacific Ocean and 30 miles away from beautiful San Diego.
If this sounds like somewhere you’d like to live or have investments, you are in luck! There are two homes now available that have yet to hit the MLS.
617 Richland, San Marcos CA
The first one is a 3 bed 2 bath; 2,183 sq ft that sits on a 11,878 sq ft lot, great corner lot with a circle drive priced at $499,000!
619 Richland, San Marcos CA
The second home is actually right next door, the adjoining lots give huge investment potential! This 2 bed, 2 bath has 1,200 sq ft. and is listed at $370,000.
Open House July 11th 2015 from 1-4pm
Both properties have recently been renovated inside and are scheduled to hit the MLS next week. Beat the rush and join us at the PRE-MLS open house this weekend on July 11th from 1-4pm.
Can’t make the open house? These great properties are still available for pre MLS showings by appointment only. Seller will consider an offer on one or both! If you would like more details on ideal San Marcos property opportunities email SuccessInWeeks@gmail.com or call or text 949-338-7408.
Read Full Post | Make a Comment ( None so far )Balboa Peninsula, Newport Beach – Best Deals on Property Duplexes
Gorgeous Newport Beach, CA – an ideal retirement and vacation spot for so many. Balboa Peninsula is seeing lots of changes this year – a new marina going in, lots of new restaurants and shops, multiple properties adding 2nd and 3rd stories – the area is truly in a ‘build up’ phase similiar to what we saw with Huntington Beach 10-15 years ago.For many, the “Newport” lifestyle is far out of reach. Currently there is only ONE lonely condo on Balboa Peninsula under 1 million dollars, and it’s HOA is almost $800/mo – OUCH! Is there anything affordable? Are there any opportunities? There sure are. Lots of times with the higher end areas, buyers will opt for a multi-unit property as a stepping stone to get up to their McMansion. They live in one unit, and rent out the other(s) so that the mortgage becomes affordable. Many property owners keep the multi-unit forever, because rental rates on the peninsula can be insane. Newport Beach vacation rents range from $150-1000 per NIGHT, so you can see the potential a second unit could have on your mortgage payment! If you don’t like the vacation rental crowd, you can still rent on a 6 month or 1 year lease for a minimum of $2000/mo, even if the unit is the size of a closet without a garage or parking. Ya, Newport Beach CA is that expensive and exclusive.
Here are the 3 best property duplex deals on Balboa Peninsula right now:
1. 211 34th St, Newport Beach CA 92663
$1,378,000
2 BR/1 BATH Lower unit
2 BR/1 BATH upper unit
1,900 sq ft
2,666 lot size
Situated in the bustling area of the peninsula, this duplex is walking distance to shops, beach, harbor, nightlife, and a ton of restaurants. It is only one block to the sand.
2. 417 Harding ST , Newport Beach 92661
$1,295,000
2 BR/1 BATH Front unit
2 BR/1 BATH Rear unit
2,119 sq ft
2,178 lot size
Harding is a quiet, interior peninsula street (rare!) walking distance to the Balboa Ferry, Fun Zone, harbor, beach, shops, bars, Sunday Classic Car show, Catalina Flyer and Balboa Pier. Such an ideal location. A tear down recently sold a couple doors down for about the same price.. so this property also offers big opportunity.
3. 1627 W Balboa BL , Newport Beach 92663
$1,495,000
2 BR/2 BATH unit
3 BR/3 BATH unit
2118 sq ft
2563 lot size
The only available peninsula duplex that offers units with more than 1 bath, this cottage style property is on the ocean side of Balboa Blvd with bigger units than the first two options. It’s the closest listing to the new marina under development, and it’s still close to the Newport Pier, harbor, shops, restaurants and nightlife.
Balboa’s Best Deals
If you’re interested in more properties in Newport Beach, or Balboa Island’s best deals, just give us a call toll free at 877-230-3211, or tweet @AngieWeeks or @AskAngieTeam with your questions so we can get details. You can also register your own property search through our website at: http://properties.askangie.com
Read Full Post | Make a Comment ( None so far )Orange County Real Estate Appraisals – “Ask The Appraiser”!
Appraisers…..we love to hate them. They scrutinize your house, call your ‘baby’ ugly, and they tell you it isn’t worth as much as you would like. But they are a critical part of every real estate transaction when you’re getting a loan, so we have to learn to speak appraisal language. What does an appraiser do, anyway? In a nutshell, appraisers determine an unbiased price your property is worth at any particular moment in time. They do this by pulling ‘comps‘ or comparable properties near you, and then factoring in upgrades and features to nail down a property price. The bank hires an appraiser to confirm the loan they are about to give you is on a safe, solid, properly priced property. This week we had the pleasure of hearing long time Laguna Beach appraiser Mary “Vicky” Wilson tell us how we can get closer to the right numbers. As an agent in the business 11 years, some of this info was totally new to me! I’m sure you’ll learn a few things too – so read on 🙂
First off, appraisers take a completely factual and non-emotional approach. So to get on the same page with them…you’ve gotta use your head, not your heart. Every price adjustment and comparable property needs to be validated with a series of facts behind it, not just thoughts or feelings.
Basic guidelines Orange County Real Estate appraisers follow:
- **Appraisers do NOT NOT NOT use a price per square foot average.** Don’t even try to value your property like this. You may be able to justify it to the buyers agent, buyer, and yourself, but the appraiser isn’t buying it, and they give the bank the green light needed to lend the money needed & close this deal. Now, lots and land are an exception to this rule, but the main dwelling is NOT.
- Comps must be reasonable substitutes. ie single level properties vs 2 story properties are NOT comparable. Read that again because it takes a minute to sink in. SERIOUSLY?? The 2 story that is 3 doors down is not a comp if you’re a single story??? Notsomuch in the eyes of the appraiser. Be careful not to price a less desirable model in a neighborhood the same as the most desirable if they differ in stories.
- To follow along these lines, lenders don’t want an appraiser to compare properties that are 15% plus or minus in size. If you are the smallest model, you may not be a comp with the largest, and vice versa.
- Lenders require 4 closed sales AND 2 backup or pending sales that support the value opinion & your price tag. Pay attention to active, pending, & backup listings because the appraiser is! They are looking for upward or downward trends in your local market. One high closing in your area won’t help you, remember FOUR closed properties are needed, plus 2 more that are under contract.
- Did you know there are only 17-20 line items on an appraisal? Appraisers stick to the cold, hard facts.
- L O C A T I O N is the #1 consideration. Location also trumps distance from property. So if you are the only ‘ocean view’ in your community, an appraiser may go to a neighboring community to pull other ocean view comps instead of other non-view properties in your same neighborhood. Same would go for a ‘corner lot’ or ‘end unit’ location.
- Time is of the essence. Appraisers like 3-6 month old closed comps, not more than 1 mile away. Pull up this data before you price your property so you are in line with the realities of today’s market.
- No, your converted detached garage, pool house, or Mother In-Law suite is not part of the square footage of your property. Ever. Rule of thumb: If you have to walk outside the main structure and have air or water or wind touch you then it’s not part of the square footage 😦 Furthermore, to be considered square footage, permitted improvements must be above soil grade & under the main roof. Sorry, but your cool casitas or underground grow and wine rooms can be appraisal line item adjustments, but NOT included in the square footage.
- .75 bath (toilet, sink, shower) is counted as a full bath in appraisals!!!! .5 baths with no tub or shower, on the other hand, are only noted as .1….so if your property is 5 full and 3 1/2 baths… it’s a 5.3 on the appraisal; not 6.5.
- Appraisers only have 48 hours to send their appraisals in, and they get paid less than $500 per report. Banks have high expectations and short timelines, so this is where a good agent comes in to assist your appraiser in understanding your home’s true value, quickstyle. More agent tips coming if you keep on reading….
- The market will *usually* pay back 50-60% of what you spent on upgrades!!! Sellers who try to add the entire price of remodels or upgrades into a purchase price always end up disappointed. Remember this ratio and come to terms with it now.
- If you do have an unpermitted addition, appraisers will ask: Does it have intrinsic value to the property? Is the addition positive or negative to the overall home? How is the condition? Remember, non-permitted additions won’t count toward square footage, ever, but it can be added as a line item to the overall valuation.
Tips for Realtors and homeowners to better work with appraisers:
- Be present at the appraisal appointment with a comp packet. Or email it early. The appraiser is in the field NOW, not in 3 hours when you get back to the office and your email. Don’t expect appraisers to drive back to see your comps. Make sure to support upward and downward trends with comps and a possible market report, too.
- Inform – appraisers need to know what was upgraded and how much was spent. Readily offer full access to everything.
- Don’t approach an appraiser negatively or with an attitude if you don’t agree with their valuation.
- Don’t say: “You should have no problems with the value”. Famous last words.
- During follow up: don’t ask the value, they can NOT tell you the number directly. Instead ask: “Did you find any problems with the home that may be an issue?”
Wanna Ask the Appraiser more specifics?
Mary Vicky Wilson is happy to do ‘range valuations’ for Orange County homeowners who are considering selling. May as well do it now.
949-939-6806
Vicky@yourappraisalpeople.com
Want an Orange County Market Report and professionally pulled comps?
Contact the AskAngie team and we’re happy to help! You can reach Angie direct at 949-338-7408. Or just email Angie@AskAngie.com or tweet @AskAngieTeam so we can help you get the research you need to sell your biggest asset for top dollar!
Read Full Post | Make a Comment ( None so far )Tax Benefits For Home Owners – Make the Most of Orange County Real Estate
As an Orange County Realtor, I can’t technically offer advice on taxes, but I always try to network and meet great tax professionals who can help our clients! Today I sat in on a great session by Irene Mack, CPA, and I wanted to share some notes and insight with you. Irene’s website is http://www.oc-cpa.com if you have any particular questions – she is always happy to talk taxes with you 🙂
Homeowner Tax Benefits
– Mortgage debt relief on up to 2 million loss ($1M if married / filing separate)
Will California extend our debt relief? The answer is still up in the air, but there is a bill on the table. This concerns many homeowners who are thinking about a short sale, so be sure to contact your legislators and let them know you want an extension!
Energy Tax Credits for Homeowners
– many have a $500 max lifetime credit
– some include on site installation costs, some don’t, so be sure to check
– must be on principal residence
– includes central air
– allows tankless water heaters
– solar
– geothermal
– energy star
California Short Sale Tax Benefits
Sb931 focuses on 1st Trust Deed, and ensures lien holders can’t come back to homeowners for deficiency judgement after the short sale.
Sb458 focuses on 2nd trust deeds, and this law came a little after sb931 to help homeowners steer clear of judgements from 2nd mortgages and HELOCs.
Equity Sale Tax Benefits
– No taxes on $500k profit for married couples
– No tax on $250k profit for single filers
Capital Gains Taxes
Will you be taxed if you sell for a profit? Yes, unless your profit is below the $500k/$250k mentioned above.
– Long term (1 year and one day+) is determined on your tax bracket
– It’s best to keep your home ‘long term’ when it comes to taxation
First Time Homebuyer Tax Credit
– 2008 credit – when your home is no longer your personal residence, the balance of repayment becomes due immediately instead of over 15 years, so be careful!
-2009-2010 credit – 36 months of primary residence is required, most of you are almost ready to move up with no penalties 😉
Wow!! Taxes are confusing!!! Make sure to consider your tax benefits and / or penalties when you go to sell your home in Orange County. Irene’s number is 714-957-6936 if you’d like more info.
Remember The Weeks Team is here to help you navigate through tough real estate waters. Be sure to call 877-230-3211 or comment here if we can help you in any way!
Read Full Post | Make a Comment ( 2 so far )California Real Estate Forecast 2012 – 2013
If you are interested in what is to come in Orange County real estate, then listen up as Leslie Appleton Young has provided us with some great insights. We had the chance to attend one of Leslie’s recent luncheons, and she gave us great information we needed to know for the upcoming Real Estate shift.
As mentioned in our recent video summary on YouTube (embedded below), Leslie stated California Realty is a “Bright Spot in the California Economy; and that the bottom has been reached and is on its way up.” We also found demand is starting to grow, big time! 83% of Real Estate investors are buying to hold. 57% of homes in Orange County are recieveing multiple offers of more than asking. There are an average of 4.3 offers per property!!! Homes are flying off the market right now as well – the average days on the MLS is cut in half from a year prior. Southern California Median home prices are up 14.3 %. Things are looking much better for Orange County and California real estate in general…great news!!
Are you ready to get your Orange County home on the market and upgrade? Call The Weeks Team…877-230-3211
CALIFORNIA REAL ESTATE FORECAST 2013
2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012f | 2013f | |
SFH Resales (000s) | 441.8 | 546.9 | 492.3 | 497.9 | 523.3 | 530.0 |
% Change | 27.3% | 23.8% | -10.0% | 1.1% | 5.1% | 1.3% |
Median Price ($000s) | $348.5 | $275.0 | $305.0 | $286.0 | $317.0 | $335.0 |
% Change | -37.8% | -21.1% | 10.9% | -6.2% | 10.9% | 5.7% |
30-Yr FRM | 6.0% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 4.0% |
1-Yr ARM | 5.2% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 2.8% |
f = forecast
Contact info:
The Weeks Team
949 – 338 – 7408
angie@askangie.com
Mission Viejo Real Estate Statistics – Time to build that portfolio!
Mission Viejo Real Estate is selling like no other! Homes come on the market and are off just like that. Here are some of the stats for Mission Viejo Real Estate, but 1st I will allow you to view the meanings of each before anyone is confused as to what each stand for…
- Active – indicates the property is on the market and accepting buyer offers.
- Backup – means the home has technically accepted a buyer offer and is sold, but the buyer is still in his/her contingency period of due diligence investigations and full loan approval. California buyers get 17 days after offer acceptance to complete all contingencies and inspections.
- Pending – implies all contingencies have been removed on this listing and its only a matter of time until close.
- Closed – entails the buyer’s loan has funded, and title has officially recorded in the new owner’s name.
There are a few other status’ you may see:
- Hold – property is on hold and not being shown to new buyers for various reasons. (there are 36 of those right now)
- Cancelled – means the property listing was cancelled by the owner before a sale took place.
- Expired – indicates the listing agreement on the home for sale expired before a sale occurred.
- Withdrawn – similar to cancelled status, this property has been withdrawn from the market.
Current Mission Viejo Real Estate Statistics
Active: 108
Attached: 19
Detached: 89
Back Up: 154
Pending: 107
Closed (last 30 days): 114
Now lets compare these stats with last years Mission Viejo home statistics.
Average Sale Price in Mission Viejo 1 Year Ago: $416,951
Average Sale Price in MV in the Past 30 Days: $428,500
Avg. Square foot price 1 year ago: $231.31
Avg. Square foot price Today: $280.77
Avg. Days on Market 1 year ago: 93
Avg. Days on the Market Now: 76
We are currently moving towards a seller’s market in Mission Viejo. There are an average of 4.5 offers for every one property, and we are seeing properties sell in 1 day or even before they hit the MLS!! Now is a perfect time to move up and get more square footage for less than ever before. If your interested in upgrading your home, or adding to your Mission Viejo real estate portfolio, please contact The Weeks Team 888-281-7665 for more info on how you can take advantage of this ideal real estate opportunity!
Read Full Post | Make a Comment ( 1 so far )California Home Buyer Recovery Timeline – do you agree???
Happy Memorial Day!! We hope you have a nice and relaxing long weekend planned 🙂 Here’s an interesting email we received about homebuyer recovery from the folks at FirstTuesday.us and Barry Zanck, one of our preferred lenders. What do you think?
California Home Buyer Recovery
2005-2009 California economic development stagnates.
2007-2009 The Great Recession
2009-2010 The Federal Reserve takes direct control of long-term interest rates – all new mortgages are Fed funded by bonds.
2009-2016 The Lesser Depression, characterized by persistent slow job growth and low demand from home buyers, while dominated by speculators.
2010-2015 Home sales remains on a “bumpy plateau” recovery approximating their 2010 numbers. The state’s homeownership rate drops below 55% (state’s historic point of stability) to near 50%. Collectively, short sales, foreclosures sales and REO resales remain high.
2012-2013 The most likely bottom for home sales volume to users, followed by an extremely gradual sales volume recovery for lack of user demand. Apartment construction begins to rise noticeably in response to tenant demand.
2014-2015 Prior low pricing and low interest rates spark a bounce in home sales volume. This bounce is short-lived, as the Federal Reserve raises rates to control the pace of recovery and prevent momentum buying. Property prices keep pace with the rate of consumer inflation. Speculators holding SFRs acquired two or three years earlier begin to dump them
2014-2016 Home sales stabilize. Shortsales, foreclosures, bankruptcies and REOs remain high. 300,000-400,000 new jobs are created annually for a return to the December 2009 peak level. Generation Y begins to come of age and buy homes.
2016-2017 Full recovery mode for employment, home sales, then pricing. SFR construction rises, though no where near Boom-time heights.
2017-2018 Interest rates rise again.
2018-2020 Excess inventory of vacant homes finally returns to pre-recession levels. Generation Y begins to pick up homebuying activity en masse. Homeownership in California is at 50%.
2020-2025 Negative equity homeowners who refused to strategically default finally work their way out of debt and return to a stable financial status, the poorer for it.
2025+ Home prices return to peak levels of 2006. The lessons of the Great Recession forgotten, and home sales hedonism returns. The mistakes of the past are repeated and the cycle continues.
We agree that we are probably at the bottom right now, as we’re already seeing an uptick in California homebuyer interest, and a decrease in inventory. We disagree that interest rates will stay low until 2017…..although wouldn’t that be nice???! We also agree (unfortunately) that the lessons of the past will be forgotton by 2025, and the market will again cycle. It always does!
What do you think? Please comment below or tweet us @angieweeks or @weeksteam. Should you be interested in buying ‘at the supposed bottom’, please call us at 877-230-3211, and we’re happy to show you homes over this Memorial weekend!
Read Full Post | Make a Comment ( None so far )Orange County CA Economic Update – Gary Watts says…..
Hi everyone,
Just got back from OCAR’s annual meeting held at the beautiful Aliso Viejo golf course. I thought I would record a video update for you 🙂
I know you have comments, let ’em fly!!
Read Full Post | Make a Comment ( None so far )Make the Most of Your Money – DIVERSIFY!
Mission Viejo Book Signing – ‘Making the Most of Your Money’
Last week I visited the Mission Viejo Library to get a copy of what is supposed to be the best personal financial planning book on the market right now. Entitled ‘Making the Most of Your Money’, it was written by Jane Bryant Quinn. Honestly, I had never heard of Jane Bryant Quinn until recently, but she definitely is a highly respected voice in the money management community.
Jane got off to a light start, joking that she almost named her book ‘Making the Most Out of What’s Left of Your Money’. She agrees that the economy is in a bad place, adding that the government needed to step in in order to prevent a full-on depression. But this cloud has a silver lining – the economy is recovering. Nevertheless, we’re still feeling some economic aches and pains, which is why keeping our finances in mind and tightening up our ship is such a good idea.
Jane covered quite a bit of financial planning territory. Regarding our current bull market, she recommended diversifying accordingly. She also touched on inflation, predicting that fortunately this monster won’t go very high.
For the U.S. government’s role, Jane pointed out that Congress may soon be restoring the Paygo law, which is intended to control government spending. This, along with a tax increase, could significantly help our budget.
So how do savers and investors pick their way through the current financial wilderness?
First and foremost, according to Jane, get OUT of consumer debt. “Debt is like feeding your dollars to squirrels.” Do NOT make it normal. Debt and credit are not glamorous. Sure, they seem fun at first, but when it’s time to retire and your mortgage is soaring, the debt beast will likely bring you to ruin.
In the Real Estate arena, Jane cautioned that we shouldn’t expect the height of where we were in 2007 for many, many years. OK fine. Thanks for that. In general, home prices follow the inflation rate. Currently, consumers aren’t thinking of their homes as investments. But that’s OK. Because when all is said and done, according to Jane, it STILL PAYS to OWN a HOME!!!!!! But watch those HELOCs. Let’s get back to that concept of paying down our mortgage, people. Jane also advised don’t take a reverse mortgage until you’re in your 80’s, even though you are allowed to in your 60’s.
If you’re underwater on your rental investment, it’s probably a good idea to lower your rent to keep your tenants. You must be prepared for losses for years and years if you are a serious real estate investor. Make sure you have liquid cash flow. You can also consider short sale or foreclosure if the property is a huge drain. Talk to a professional Orange County financial planner and / or consider some by the book investment education.
As for stocks, Jane mentioned that she talked with many of the top financial masterminds all over the nation. Apparently, the majority of them have the bulk of their own funds in a broad market index, something like S&P…
She added that for young people, lifestyle funds are a good idea, even though they’ve received a bit of a bad rap.
Jane also stated a good formula for your retirement fund risk is this: subtract your age from 110. Whatever that number is, that’s the percent you should be investing in stocks. As you get older, this formula helps you safely transition into a majority of bonds and a lower risk portfolio.
There are so many valuable insights in this book, it was THICK! I’m sure ‘Making the Most of Your Money’ is truly a valuable guide to sound financial planning. But seriously, no matter how many books we read someone, who does financial planning for a living will always be better than we are, IMO. You should have a professional on your side. Just like you should in real estate!!
Speaking of property, if you would like your diversification strategy to include owning some Orange County Real Estate, I’m happy to help. Contact me at 949.338.7408 or angie@askangie.com. Or follow me @AngieWeeks or @WeeksTeam. Happy investing – feel free to post what has and has not worked for you here!
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